Romania’s economy doing better than expected after surprisingly strong Q4
Posted date: 09 Apr 2021
BCR and ING Bank, two of the biggest financial groups in Romania, significantly improved their forecasts for the country's 2021 GDP growth in response to the above-expectations GDP growth announced by the National Institute for Statistics (INS) in Q4.
Romania’s seasonally adjusted GDP increased more strongly quarter-on-quarter than expected in Q4, growing by 5.3% compared to Q3, according to the flash estimate issued by the INS on February 18.
This resulted in an overall economic contraction rate of only 3.9% for the full year 2020. In annual terms, the country's GDP was down only 1.7% y/y in the last quarter of 2020, a major improvement from the 5.6% y/y decline seen in Q3 and the 12.2% y/y plunge in Q2 during the lockdown.
"We have revised up this year's economic growth forecast to +4.2% from +2.7% mainly due to the statistically significant effect that the advance at the end of 2020 has on the GDP in 2021," BCR said in its note.
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GSP Admin
